While David willingly went with us wherever we took him, he liked to wander off by himself. That started at a very young age. Even when he could not talk, he saw his older sister, Lisa, and his older brother, Sean, going to school and even though he could never say it he decided that he had to go too. Naturally, since he could not tell anyone where he was going, he just went. For those of you who would admonish me that we should have locked the door, thrown a high chain lock, kept him fenced in in the back yard, okay. We did all that. David had no trouble with any of it. He just left when he wanted to, without a word or any signal that he was leaving. School called. Yvette had to go get him. That was the beginning.
The number of times when David would simply leave only increased after that. He decided that he needed to explore the neighborhood. He made friends with every dog, cat and ferret that was allowed outside the house. I found out where each one of them was because I would find David playing with them when I went after him. At other times I found him at the neighborhood playgrounds. His wanderings got to be more predictable so that when he did wander off, Yvette and I were able to round him up rather quickly, usually 10 to 15 minutes. Still, I cannot count the number of times he managed to escape.
One time we were surprised. I was tutoring my nephew in calculus. Yvette was upstairs getting sick with the stomach flu. The phone rang and I picked up.
"This is the county sheriff's department. Do you know where your son is?"
I replied, "Obviously, you know. Would you like to tell me where he is so I can pick him up?"
He was down the street about 1/2 mile. He had ridden his green tricycle over there. I got there a few minutes later. One of the ladies there wanted to give me a piece of her mind.
"How can you let him wander off like that?"
I shrugged and said, "You obviously do not know my son." I took David home, followed by the sheriff.
I explained to him that David is autistic and therefore if he gets it in his mind to leave he could not tell us because he could not talk. David's solution to this problem is to simply go when he feels the need. The sheriff had not heard of autism. This is one of the many memories that contradict the idea that autism has always been here. We are just now getting around to being able to diagnose it.
I also explained that this was one of many times when David took it in his head to take off without telling anyone. However, if he had any suggestion how I could keep David from taking off like that I would be willing to act on anything he could come up with (GPS collars did not exist then). He could offer nothing more than be more careful next time.
But then came the social worker. She was young and inexperienced. Her idea was that maybe David should go to a foster home. I had to disabuse her of that idea.
"Do you know what it is like to have an autistic child?
Do you know how rigid they can be?
Do you know the kind of fits they can throw if they are taken into a strange situation?
Have you ever had to deal with any of the problems that come with an autistic child?
Are you sure that this would be in David's best interest?"
She backed off. "I was merely suggesting that it might be a possibility. "
My eyebrows raised, but I bit off the retort that was forming.
That need to keep David in range was a dominant theme when he was young.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
David's first words (beyond echolalia)
One of my favorite things to recount about David is the first time David said something beyond echolalia.
To understand this the reader needs some background. David did not sleep like the rest of us do. When he just turned four years old he was only sleeping 4 hours a night. This was hard on me, but David did not seem to mind. He functioned just fine on 4 hours a night. I would wake up at night hearing a noise downstairs. When I came down, there was David playing in front of the aquarium which was the only light on downstairs. Sometimes David would make a refrigerator raid when he came downstairs. I would know because the refrigerator door was propped open by the bar stool. A gallon of milk was on the floor along with a glass from the cupboard. Milk was puddled around the glass and the glass was half full. I took to staying with David in his room while he fell asleep. Only he did not fall asleep. I did. At one AM I would wake up still holding David next to me and he would be wide awake! When I fell asleep with David in his bed it was painful. My back would be parked in a bad position and I would wake with spasms. At that point I would ask David to stay in his bed and I would go back to my own bed. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it did not.
One summer day I came home from work and found David asleep on the sofa. I was upset.
"Yvette, you let him sleep when you know how little he sleeps at night?" I asked.
My wife was having none of it. "Have you ever tried to wake him when he is napping? He wakes cranky and it very hard to deal with." she replied.
That was true. David is a handful when awaken from a nap. I had done it before. I gathered Lisa and Sean and carried David to the car and strapped him in. We were going to the library and I was going to use the motion of the car to wake him up slowly. When I got to the library I carried David on my shoulders. I could not let go of him because he would run off and I would have a hard time chasing him down even with Lisa and Sean helping me. He liked to be carried on my shoulders and it was a nice compromise that kept me from panicking.
When I got inside the library I suddenly realized that David had been asleep for quite a while and while he was potty trained an accident was still possible, especially when he was waking up ... and on my shoulders... and still groggy... and
"Dave, do you need to pee?" I whimpered. Don't get me wrong. I have changed diapers for all of my children. I have cleaned up every kind of mess they have gotten into. But the thought of having the yellow river flowing down my back made me cringe.
"I nee go baf'oom." He said. My ears were incredulous. My chain flew off its sprockets.
"Wow, David. Yeah!" I had lost it. People must have been looking at me but I did not notice, though Lisa did.
"Dad, this is a library!" she whispered while tugging on my sleeve.
"It sure is!" I exclaimed and I walked swiftly out to where the bathroom was.
When I was taking David to go, I heard a knock on the door. It was Lisa.
"Dad, they can still hear you out here." she stage whispered.
"Okay, Lisa." I said. When David was done we all made a quick exit.
We built on that day and now David while taciturn is capable of being articulate.
To understand this the reader needs some background. David did not sleep like the rest of us do. When he just turned four years old he was only sleeping 4 hours a night. This was hard on me, but David did not seem to mind. He functioned just fine on 4 hours a night. I would wake up at night hearing a noise downstairs. When I came down, there was David playing in front of the aquarium which was the only light on downstairs. Sometimes David would make a refrigerator raid when he came downstairs. I would know because the refrigerator door was propped open by the bar stool. A gallon of milk was on the floor along with a glass from the cupboard. Milk was puddled around the glass and the glass was half full. I took to staying with David in his room while he fell asleep. Only he did not fall asleep. I did. At one AM I would wake up still holding David next to me and he would be wide awake! When I fell asleep with David in his bed it was painful. My back would be parked in a bad position and I would wake with spasms. At that point I would ask David to stay in his bed and I would go back to my own bed. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it did not.
One summer day I came home from work and found David asleep on the sofa. I was upset.
"Yvette, you let him sleep when you know how little he sleeps at night?" I asked.
My wife was having none of it. "Have you ever tried to wake him when he is napping? He wakes cranky and it very hard to deal with." she replied.
That was true. David is a handful when awaken from a nap. I had done it before. I gathered Lisa and Sean and carried David to the car and strapped him in. We were going to the library and I was going to use the motion of the car to wake him up slowly. When I got to the library I carried David on my shoulders. I could not let go of him because he would run off and I would have a hard time chasing him down even with Lisa and Sean helping me. He liked to be carried on my shoulders and it was a nice compromise that kept me from panicking.
When I got inside the library I suddenly realized that David had been asleep for quite a while and while he was potty trained an accident was still possible, especially when he was waking up ... and on my shoulders... and still groggy... and
"Dave, do you need to pee?" I whimpered. Don't get me wrong. I have changed diapers for all of my children. I have cleaned up every kind of mess they have gotten into. But the thought of having the yellow river flowing down my back made me cringe.
"I nee go baf'oom." He said. My ears were incredulous. My chain flew off its sprockets.
"Wow, David. Yeah!" I had lost it. People must have been looking at me but I did not notice, though Lisa did.
"Dad, this is a library!" she whispered while tugging on my sleeve.
"It sure is!" I exclaimed and I walked swiftly out to where the bathroom was.
When I was taking David to go, I heard a knock on the door. It was Lisa.
"Dad, they can still hear you out here." she stage whispered.
"Okay, Lisa." I said. When David was done we all made a quick exit.
We built on that day and now David while taciturn is capable of being articulate.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Oh those ears
We had taken David to the local Fourth of July fireworks display when he was three years old. With the first boom David was in agony. I could see it immediately. I told Yvette, Lisa, David's older sister, and Sean, David's older brother that I had to get David back to the car. I ran with David back to the car with everyone else running behind me. While I ran, I covered David's ears with my hands. It was clear. Watching fireworks was fun, but not for David.
The next year Yvette and I decided that David could not come with me when I took Lisa and Sean to watch fireworks. David was livid and he called me at work. I was not there, but David kept calling me. Finally one of my coworkers had stopped by the office and decided that if the phone was ringing so long it might be an emergency. He picked up the phone.
"Where's my Dad?" David cried. David had just started talking and the situation seemed to bring out his very best effort.
Tom was calm. He asked, "Is your dad, Ed?"
"Yeah!" David cried out. "He is supposed to take me to fireworks!"
"This is where he works and he is not here." Tom told David. "But I will tell him when I see him"
"Yeah!" David yelled and he hung up.
I was in trouble when I got home and even though it was late, I took David for a walk with me. I am not sure whether it was David or guilt that made me do it, but even though I reminded him of how much he hurt when he saw the fireworks last time, I wound up promising to take him the next time.
And I did. The next year when I took my three children to see fireworks, I proposed to them that we watch the fireworks from a Dairy Queen store. It was far enough away that it did not hurt David and being at Dairy Queen meant that we could have ice cream while watching the fireworks. It was a compromise that we all were happy with.
Later, I took David to the Children's Hospital here in Denver where his hearing was checked. David's hearing was incredible. He was hearing words 20 dB below the level that the average person could hear them. There were tones where he was hearing below -10 dBA. I had never heard of such a thing. Clearly David's hearing was and still is really acute. I remember walking into a restaurant where David said that the television, which was muted, was ringing. I walked up close to the television and two feet away, I could hear it too, barely. My wife could not hear it at all. Oh those ears.
The next year Yvette and I decided that David could not come with me when I took Lisa and Sean to watch fireworks. David was livid and he called me at work. I was not there, but David kept calling me. Finally one of my coworkers had stopped by the office and decided that if the phone was ringing so long it might be an emergency. He picked up the phone.
"Where's my Dad?" David cried. David had just started talking and the situation seemed to bring out his very best effort.
Tom was calm. He asked, "Is your dad, Ed?"
"Yeah!" David cried out. "He is supposed to take me to fireworks!"
"This is where he works and he is not here." Tom told David. "But I will tell him when I see him"
"Yeah!" David yelled and he hung up.
I was in trouble when I got home and even though it was late, I took David for a walk with me. I am not sure whether it was David or guilt that made me do it, but even though I reminded him of how much he hurt when he saw the fireworks last time, I wound up promising to take him the next time.
And I did. The next year when I took my three children to see fireworks, I proposed to them that we watch the fireworks from a Dairy Queen store. It was far enough away that it did not hurt David and being at Dairy Queen meant that we could have ice cream while watching the fireworks. It was a compromise that we all were happy with.
Later, I took David to the Children's Hospital here in Denver where his hearing was checked. David's hearing was incredible. He was hearing words 20 dB below the level that the average person could hear them. There were tones where he was hearing below -10 dBA. I had never heard of such a thing. Clearly David's hearing was and still is really acute. I remember walking into a restaurant where David said that the television, which was muted, was ringing. I walked up close to the television and two feet away, I could hear it too, barely. My wife could not hear it at all. Oh those ears.
Retarded? Hardly
It was early summer. David was 4 years old. He could not talk except as echolalia. Echolalia is an autistic form of speech. It involves repeating a single word of a question that is asked of him. For example, I would ask David if he wanted some milk. David would reply, "Milk." He could also sign a few words. So if I asked him if he wanted some more cereal, he would sign "more." I am not sure if even the signing was not a form of echolalia because I never saw him sign more than one word at a time and only if the word was said by the person talking to him. Because David could not talk, it was difficult to tell what intelligence David did or did not have.
One Sunday afternoon, our telephone went out. I went out the the telephone box which was on the side of the house at the back. David was on his rocking horse rocking back and forth. I opened the box, unplugged the house and plugged in one of our phones to see if the problem was in our house or in the network. It was in the network. I plugged the house back in, screwed the box shut and went to a neighbor's house to call the phone company to report the outage.
On Monday afternoon, I got a phone call at work. I heard a mumble that sounded like R2D2 would have sounded if he had a tongue. It was David!
"Dave? Did Mom call for you? Is she nearby? Can you put her on?"
David continued to mumble. Suddenly I hear my wife, Yvette's voice on the phone.
"Do you know where he is calling from? He is calling from the box at the back of the house," she said.
"David called me?!" I asked in surprise.
"He called you. He brought a phone down from upstairs and plugged in into the phone box outside." she replied.
"David dialed the phone?" I needed this clarified.
"Yes, he knows your work phone number. I did not call you." Yvette said.
I was speechless. David was almost four. He could not talk, and yet he knew my phone number at work. It made no sense. David's pediatrician told us that most autistic children were retarded. I knew he had to be wrong. At least he was in David's case.
One Sunday afternoon, our telephone went out. I went out the the telephone box which was on the side of the house at the back. David was on his rocking horse rocking back and forth. I opened the box, unplugged the house and plugged in one of our phones to see if the problem was in our house or in the network. It was in the network. I plugged the house back in, screwed the box shut and went to a neighbor's house to call the phone company to report the outage.
On Monday afternoon, I got a phone call at work. I heard a mumble that sounded like R2D2 would have sounded if he had a tongue. It was David!
"Dave? Did Mom call for you? Is she nearby? Can you put her on?"
David continued to mumble. Suddenly I hear my wife, Yvette's voice on the phone.
"Do you know where he is calling from? He is calling from the box at the back of the house," she said.
"David called me?!" I asked in surprise.
"He called you. He brought a phone down from upstairs and plugged in into the phone box outside." she replied.
"David dialed the phone?" I needed this clarified.
"Yes, he knows your work phone number. I did not call you." Yvette said.
I was speechless. David was almost four. He could not talk, and yet he knew my phone number at work. It made no sense. David's pediatrician told us that most autistic children were retarded. I knew he had to be wrong. At least he was in David's case.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Potty Training
I came home one day to my wife, Yvette. She did not look happy. She said, "I can't get him potty trained. You try. I saw autistic kids who were 4 and 5 years old who had still not been potty trained. I had no idea how David would do. He was three years old and a bit long in the tooth for diapers. I had no idea how to handle it and since we were considering taking David out of Developmental Pathways and into the Day Treatment Center, I went to see the woman who ran the center at the time. It was a rather lengthy consultation during which David messed his pants. That allowed me to bring up the issue of potty training with her. In her treatment center, I remember very few autistic kids who were potty trained. She was skeptical about David being able to train. Nevertheless, I pressed her on it. I do not remember many of the details of it. But she instructed me on the method.
That weekend I took David to potty train. We worked on it for quite a while. It was not working and I needed to go. So I picked David up and let him stand there while I went. After that, David was not so hard to get to go like the rest of us. I am not sure whether it was the method I was taught or the modeling. I suspect it was the modeling. When I brought David to the Day Treatment Center he became the model for other kids to learn to use the toilet.
Clearly, my son is a visual learner. I suspect that my modeling it for him was at least part of the reason he learned how to go by himself. I figure he just did not want me to show him any more. Fortunately, he does not remember any of that. David was autistic before this, so any trauma suffered was not the reason for his autism.
That weekend I took David to potty train. We worked on it for quite a while. It was not working and I needed to go. So I picked David up and let him stand there while I went. After that, David was not so hard to get to go like the rest of us. I am not sure whether it was the method I was taught or the modeling. I suspect it was the modeling. When I brought David to the Day Treatment Center he became the model for other kids to learn to use the toilet.
Clearly, my son is a visual learner. I suspect that my modeling it for him was at least part of the reason he learned how to go by himself. I figure he just did not want me to show him any more. Fortunately, he does not remember any of that. David was autistic before this, so any trauma suffered was not the reason for his autism.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Starting Early Intervention
The new buzzword around treatment of autism was early intervention. I had no idea what that entailed but I was willing to try it. At the time, there were two places where any kind of intervention would be available in Denver, Developmental Pathways and the Day Treatment Center. We started with Developmental Pathways.
In the early morning before work it fell to me to take David to a bus where I would strap him in for his ride to the school where Developmental Pathways held its sessions. I took David out of the car and brought him by the hand to the bus where I strapped him into the seat. Then I ruffled his hair and told him that I would see him in the evening. David was wonderful. He did not cry. He did not complain. He simply looked out the window as the bus drove away. For someone who is autistic, David took this change to the routine in stride. I was really proud of him. It fell to my wife to pick him up when the bus came back. We both agreed that David handled the new situation wonderfully well. It was a good start.
And then.... I got a call from Developmental Pathways two weeks later. David simply was not thriving. He did not participate and he did not seem to like being there. Wow. This was completely different from my observations of him in the morning. I took off work and Yvette and I took David in to see the program administrator.
I sat there with David in my lap as the program administrator explained what was going on. David simply was not happy being there in the classroom. One of the teachers would sometimes take him out for a walk and he would feel better for a while, but it was not working for him. While we were talking, David decided to go over and play with some of the toys. That was more than he had been doing before.
After the discussion, David took up a piece of chalk. He was drawing spirals on the chalkboard. I walked over and showed him a square asking if he could draw that. David walked away. One of the teachers explained that I had to follow him for a while and then strike out on my own doing the squares. Then if David was ready he would follow me. By the end of the afternoon, all of us saw that David was at home in the classroom with the teachers. It seemed that if David was going to go into a new situation like that without Yvette or me, he would need to be introduced to the situation. It was a lesson that I would not forget.
In the early morning before work it fell to me to take David to a bus where I would strap him in for his ride to the school where Developmental Pathways held its sessions. I took David out of the car and brought him by the hand to the bus where I strapped him into the seat. Then I ruffled his hair and told him that I would see him in the evening. David was wonderful. He did not cry. He did not complain. He simply looked out the window as the bus drove away. For someone who is autistic, David took this change to the routine in stride. I was really proud of him. It fell to my wife to pick him up when the bus came back. We both agreed that David handled the new situation wonderfully well. It was a good start.
And then.... I got a call from Developmental Pathways two weeks later. David simply was not thriving. He did not participate and he did not seem to like being there. Wow. This was completely different from my observations of him in the morning. I took off work and Yvette and I took David in to see the program administrator.
I sat there with David in my lap as the program administrator explained what was going on. David simply was not happy being there in the classroom. One of the teachers would sometimes take him out for a walk and he would feel better for a while, but it was not working for him. While we were talking, David decided to go over and play with some of the toys. That was more than he had been doing before.
After the discussion, David took up a piece of chalk. He was drawing spirals on the chalkboard. I walked over and showed him a square asking if he could draw that. David walked away. One of the teachers explained that I had to follow him for a while and then strike out on my own doing the squares. Then if David was ready he would follow me. By the end of the afternoon, all of us saw that David was at home in the classroom with the teachers. It seemed that if David was going to go into a new situation like that without Yvette or me, he would need to be introduced to the situation. It was a lesson that I would not forget.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Why would I question medical statistics related to autism?
I am Ed and the father of David who is autistic. I am an engineer by trade and as an engineer I have had a number of occasions to work with statistics. Many times I have heard medical research expound on statistical measurements and what they mean. While I seldom dig into the methods used to collect the statistics, I have looked at the inferences that were drawn and if there is a weakness in medical research, it is in the conclusions that the researchers draw from their data.
The first statistic that the medical community swore to was that the number of autistics in the general population is 1/2500. My son attended an elementary school with approximately 250 children in it. The odds of the school having no autistic children is about 90.48%. That would make my son part of the 9.52% of schools that had one or more autistic children at the time. No big deal. Then a second autistic child came to the school. That would make the school part of the 0.47% of schools that size that have 2 or more autistic children. Then a third child joined my son's school. That made my son's school one of the 0.015% of schools that size with 3 or more autistic children at the time. Had my son's school been a statistical experiment, the inference would have been virtually conclusive. The 1/2500 statistic had to be wrong. Add to that the autistic girl just up the road whose parents did not send her to the local school and the 1/2500 statistic became absurd. Yet all the way through February 2007 the CDC maintained that the autism rate was 1/2500.
This next paragraph is not a comment on whether or not thimerosal is related to the autism rate. It is a comment on the inferences that the medical community makes with their statistics.
When the Danish study was done the medical community waved it around. The autism rate in the study went up as thimerosal was taken out of the Danish vaccines. The conclusion was that thimerosal and the autism rate are not related. That is not the way it works. The measurement being done was to determine whether there is a relationship between autism and thimerosal. Logically you can infer one of two things. Either a little thimerosal prevents autism or the experiment got contaminated by another variable. The second one was true which made the study invalid. The study had been through peer review. The study was trumpeted by the medical experts as proof that autism and thimerosal were not related. The study was not valid. Invalid means that after the study was done, we do not know whether there is a relationship. The medical community made a mistake in logic to conclude that there is no relationship based on the Danish study. Invalid does not say that there is a relationship.
If you want a more modern one just take a look at the Syracuse University study where thimerosal levels were taken after vaccine injection. The thimerosal disappeared from the blood stream after three days. The conclusion made by the study was that the body got rid of the thimerosal and therefore thimerosal is safe as a preservative. What an inference for a potent neurotoxin. What an inference for a cumulative poison. What a leap of faith. The right conclusion is that the blood levels dropped after three days. There is nothing that can be concluded about what happened to it. But the Syracuse University study supports the idea that autism and vaccines are not related. Wrong or not it passed peer review and got plenty of press,
The proper experiment to determine if there is a relationship between autism and vaccines involves comparison of the vaccinated population against the unvaccinated population. I have been handed MMR studies comparing those who had and those who had not received the MMR vaccine and told that the MMR studies are proof that there is no relationship between vaccines and autism. It is an inference that is not valid.
When I suggest that the study needed is one that compares the vaccinated population against the unvaccinated population, the reactions are not favorable. I do not understand this. When I look for the autism rate of the vaccinated population I know that since 98% of the population is vaccinated the autism rate of the general population is about that of the vaccinated population, that is, 1/160. This works as long as the autism rate for the vaccinated is equal to the autism rate of the unvaccinated. Since this is what the medical community has been advertising, I can't see them objecting to that assumption. I only have one known and valid measurement for the unvaccinated population. That is the time before vaccines when the autism rate is 1/2500. From that I have to make one of two conclusions. Either vaccines made the autism rate rise or there is another factor that occurred concurrently. If I were in the medical community, I would be rushing to measure the autism rate among the unvaccinated population. If I am in the medical community then I know that there is no relationship between autism and vaccines and I would want to conclusively prove it. An autism rate of 1/160 among the unvaccinated population would conclusively show that there is no relationship between autism and vaccines.
Why would I question medical statistics related to autism? The medical community is willing to accept any study that says autism and vaccines are not related whether the study is valid or not. The medical community will not do the experiment that is a valid measurement to determine if there is a relationship.
The first statistic that the medical community swore to was that the number of autistics in the general population is 1/2500. My son attended an elementary school with approximately 250 children in it. The odds of the school having no autistic children is about 90.48%. That would make my son part of the 9.52% of schools that had one or more autistic children at the time. No big deal. Then a second autistic child came to the school. That would make the school part of the 0.47% of schools that size that have 2 or more autistic children. Then a third child joined my son's school. That made my son's school one of the 0.015% of schools that size with 3 or more autistic children at the time. Had my son's school been a statistical experiment, the inference would have been virtually conclusive. The 1/2500 statistic had to be wrong. Add to that the autistic girl just up the road whose parents did not send her to the local school and the 1/2500 statistic became absurd. Yet all the way through February 2007 the CDC maintained that the autism rate was 1/2500.
This next paragraph is not a comment on whether or not thimerosal is related to the autism rate. It is a comment on the inferences that the medical community makes with their statistics.
When the Danish study was done the medical community waved it around. The autism rate in the study went up as thimerosal was taken out of the Danish vaccines. The conclusion was that thimerosal and the autism rate are not related. That is not the way it works. The measurement being done was to determine whether there is a relationship between autism and thimerosal. Logically you can infer one of two things. Either a little thimerosal prevents autism or the experiment got contaminated by another variable. The second one was true which made the study invalid. The study had been through peer review. The study was trumpeted by the medical experts as proof that autism and thimerosal were not related. The study was not valid. Invalid means that after the study was done, we do not know whether there is a relationship. The medical community made a mistake in logic to conclude that there is no relationship based on the Danish study. Invalid does not say that there is a relationship.
If you want a more modern one just take a look at the Syracuse University study where thimerosal levels were taken after vaccine injection. The thimerosal disappeared from the blood stream after three days. The conclusion made by the study was that the body got rid of the thimerosal and therefore thimerosal is safe as a preservative. What an inference for a potent neurotoxin. What an inference for a cumulative poison. What a leap of faith. The right conclusion is that the blood levels dropped after three days. There is nothing that can be concluded about what happened to it. But the Syracuse University study supports the idea that autism and vaccines are not related. Wrong or not it passed peer review and got plenty of press,
The proper experiment to determine if there is a relationship between autism and vaccines involves comparison of the vaccinated population against the unvaccinated population. I have been handed MMR studies comparing those who had and those who had not received the MMR vaccine and told that the MMR studies are proof that there is no relationship between vaccines and autism. It is an inference that is not valid.
When I suggest that the study needed is one that compares the vaccinated population against the unvaccinated population, the reactions are not favorable. I do not understand this. When I look for the autism rate of the vaccinated population I know that since 98% of the population is vaccinated the autism rate of the general population is about that of the vaccinated population, that is, 1/160. This works as long as the autism rate for the vaccinated is equal to the autism rate of the unvaccinated. Since this is what the medical community has been advertising, I can't see them objecting to that assumption. I only have one known and valid measurement for the unvaccinated population. That is the time before vaccines when the autism rate is 1/2500. From that I have to make one of two conclusions. Either vaccines made the autism rate rise or there is another factor that occurred concurrently. If I were in the medical community, I would be rushing to measure the autism rate among the unvaccinated population. If I am in the medical community then I know that there is no relationship between autism and vaccines and I would want to conclusively prove it. An autism rate of 1/160 among the unvaccinated population would conclusively show that there is no relationship between autism and vaccines.
Why would I question medical statistics related to autism? The medical community is willing to accept any study that says autism and vaccines are not related whether the study is valid or not. The medical community will not do the experiment that is a valid measurement to determine if there is a relationship.
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